For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. With a bad shoulder and back luck, he still held his own in 2011 Mark Kotsay did not do well overall, but he was actually averaging around three wins per season from 26 to 30 before having a negative value as his career wound down. Perhaps the most aggravating trends for Heyward are his propensity to pop the ball up, producing gimme outs, and chop the ball into the ground, failing to make good use of his prodigious power and 6-foot-5, 240 pound frame. A decade ago, the serious baseball fan serious, as in desperately wanting to increase his or her chances of winning his or her fantasy league had few places to turn. Others call it a slurve or even a whirlybird. That is a major boost for lefty pull hitters like Soto (who hit 38.1 percent of his balls in play to the right field side last season, per Fangraphs). Dont look at me. But hes younger than Dustin Ackley, Jemile Weeks, Paul Goldschmidt, Dee Gordon, Jason Kipnis and a host of other rookies who had successful debuts in 2011, and hes younger than top-ranked prospects entering 2012 like Devin Mesoraco, Brett Jackson and Travis DArnaud. The headline raises the red flag right off the bat Im probably making too much of too little. Phillies (24th, 1.4 WAR) With Bryce Harper undergoing Tommy John surgery and likely to miss the first half of the season, the spotlight is again on Nick Castellanos, whose performance in the first year of his five-year, $100 million deal was downright dreadful. Using the players from the chart above, here is how those players played from age 26 through age 30, the first five years of a potential Jason Heyward contract. As in the case of the first table, we again see some of the greatest baseball players. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors But consider this for a moment: despite those negatives, despite Heyward dealing with a lingering right shoulder injury and despite a 75 point drop in his batting average on balls in play (from .335 to .260), Heyward was still basically a league-average hitter in 2011. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not. The Royals, Billy Butler, and Young Pitching. Its not that he cant hit the ball out to all fields, but his career-best homer rate is to the pull side. The last qualifier hurt more than helped Heyward, as Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre were removed from the list. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. FanGraphs crowdsourcing puts Heywards predicted contract at eight years and $184 million while Dave Cameron predicted a return to the Cardinals on a nine-year, $195 million contract with an opt-out after four years, making the value of the contract in excess of $200 million. Non-roster invitee Ronald Guzmn, who is in Giants camp as a two-way player, made his pitching debut in the ninth, surrendering a solo shot to P.J. Its hard not to fall in love with the fantasy potential of Jason Heyward, especially for those of us who cant forget the cant-miss hype surrounding his debut and a rookie season that seemed like the precursor to imminent superstardom. According to FanGraphs, the 26-year-old was worth 6.0 fWAR (FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement) in '15the sixth most WAR among outfielders. But, man oh man, do people ever love to talk about Jason Heyward not hitting for enough power. Jason Heyward. by Handedness. Heyward was a little below the average offensively and well above the average defensively. Thats 40-50 points below the NL average and ranks among the likes of Aubrey Huff and Yorvit Torrealba. After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that Justin Upton was acquired to hit directly Castellanos hit just .263/.305/.389 for a 94 wRC+ (matching his career-worst mark . I think the Bogaerts and Carpenter examples are meant to show that, while ground ball pull rate might not seem to be related to power at all (as you say, ground balls are not that great usually), Jeff thinks of it as an indicator of change.. Its not even clear this would be a good thing. Heyward might not be a burner, but he has posted average-ish Speed Scores so far and has rated as an above-average base runner overall. And its easy to identify the problem: Observers wish that Heyward would hit for more power. But the power was largely absent. Historically, Heyward has hit about 30% of his flies and liners toward left. With the injury to Gavin Lux, Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will see time at shortstop while Jason Heyward and Trayce Thompson will play in center field. The Chicago Cubs outfielder hit a third of batted balls in play in the air in 2016, but saw his slugging percentage dip to a career-low (.325) due to his exit velocity . If he took the same type of offensive step forward as Carlos Beltran and Reggie Smith, he might win an MVP. The names brought up most recently with regard to Heyward are Jacoby Ellsbury, who got seven years and $153 million from the New York Yankees two years ago, and Carl Crawford, who received seven years and $142 million from the Boston Red Sox five years ago. Now, just two years later, weve got Mike Trout and Bryce Harper one-upping them. Limiting Heyward comps solely to free agents leaves little by way of realistic comparison. Last season, Oviedos fastball had five fewer inches of rise or more sink than four-seam fastballs at similar velocities. $8? 2022 Updated In-Season Projections and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Time now for our annual spin through players whose luck in 2022 was worse (or better) than their fortune deserved. Manager Dave Roberts indicated Taylor would spend 20 to 25 percent of the games there, in addition to his usual work in the outfield. Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Prediction: Road to the MLB 2023 Season. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Andy Pages emerging, however, could free Taylor up for the infield (we'll talk about him more in a bit). Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity. With the exception of ZiPS, the projection systems (and the fans) see Heyward as more of a .270 hitter with a high OBP and 20-homer power in 2012: ZiPS: .255/.360/.427, 17 HR Theres no disputing that Heyward was frustrating to watch at times in 2011. His work has appeared in numerous publications, and he has contributed to the 2014 and 2015 editions of The Hardball Times Annual. It was a massive year-to-year swing, as Bogaerts concentrated on getting hits the other way. The hard contact, however, is further reinforcement that some offseason swing changes are paying dividends. But just looking at how Heyward has hit the ball, there are early signs that hes concentrating on pop. The pre-season #1 prospect, whose legend grew with each car he dented while going deep in spring training, batted .277/.393/.456. Well know whats up by the beginning of May. We're asking for your help to make it. He swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (28.3%, compared to 23.3% in 2010), which led to a dip in his walk rate (11.2 BB%). Ive pulled some images from Baseball Savant. These were the players remaining. It was a true comfort level, not rattled at all. The Chicago Cubs already boasted one of the best young . Especially because of the accidental report that floated this week about Canario already being back on the field doing baseball work (he's not; still way too early for . Gomber is working on a two-seam, sinking fastball that he hopes will work at altitude. The first graph is conservative, beginning the estimation of a cost of a win at $7 million with inflation set at five percent per year (although salaries have been rising at a rate greater than that amount in recent seasons and are up about 50% from half a dozen seasons ago). Effectively Wild Episode 87: Baseball and the BCS/Halladay vs. Lee/Does the Success Cycle Still Exist? His arm isnt great BIS had him costing the Braves three runs in that manner but his range was so impressive that he offered center-field like defense even once he was penalized for playing in the corner outfield. Dodgers' Jason Heyward on new environment that's more his speed. by Retrosheet. At the very least, we should expect Heywards average over the rest of the season to climb considerably. Combining average power with a low strikeout rate (14.8% in 2015) and a solid walk rate (9.2%), Heywards wRC+ of 121 puts him in the upper third in terms of the leagues hitters. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will play shortstop for now. Second, if Heywards defense declines he ages, he is not likely to be of much value. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted But as far as I believe, batted-ball distributions arent as noisy as, say, BABIP. Jason Heyward pitch% heatmaps. The ZiPS top prospect list (ranking on the basis of minor league stats and player comps - no scouting) is going to make you sad, because outfield prospect Alexander Canario shows up at number 33. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is understandable why Heywards agents would seek an opt-out clause within the first five years. FanGraphs Shirts. The team appears content to begin the season with Trayce Thompson as the starter. Lacking in top shelf power, Heyward still provided solid numbers on offense, and after a disappointing start with he Cardinals, he hit .306/.375/.455 with a wRC+ of 130 from the beginning of May to the end of the season. Hes still really young All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. All this before you look at his 11 home runs, easily a career low, less than the 14 he put up in two separate seasons when he averaged just 448 plate appearances. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Heyward, a .211-hitter in 2021 and 2022, made significant swing changes over the winter. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors So what is his value in an auction re-draft league? Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. For one thing, pitchers have shied away from trying to bust Heyward inside, and instead are focusing on trying to get him to chase pitches away. Heywards production, meanwhile, has been excellent from an early age, similar to multiple Hall of Famers. Notable in the Dodgers lineup is Jason Heyward playing in back-to-back games for the first time this spring, starting in centerfield for the second straight day. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. In fact, only teammate Michael Bourn managed more defensive value all around from the outfield. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. According to Statcast, Walker registered a sprint speed of 28.5 feet per second with 30 feet per second being considered elite-level speed usually reserved for middle infielders and cat-quick centerfielders. 1 day ago. While Heyward is a solid offensive player, he does get a decent portion of his value from defense, which causes some concern about how Heywards value will sustain itself as he ages. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Heaney then tossed a middle-middle fastball, hoping for an easy strike. Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. To isolate players similar to Heyward, I looked for players from 1960 to 2007 within five of Heywards 27.8 WAR and within 20% of his 3429 plate appearances. Crawford is WAY ahead of simba according to pretty much every defensive metric this year. Free agent Jason Heyward agreed to a $184 million, eight-year contract with the Cubs, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Jason Heyward CF B/T: L/L 6' 5" 240LBS Age: 33 Draft: 2007 Rd: 1, #14, Atlanta Braves Henry County (GA) HS Player Apps Pitch Highlighter Player Similarity Shifts Swing Take Profile illustrator Zone Swing Profile Player Comparison Transaction History Show Random Video Stats Statcast Standard Splits Game Logs MLB Minors Batting Fielding Visuals It doesnt matter that Heyward has still been productive; he looks like he should be a beast of a hitter, so its odd to see him hit singles and doubles. Watch as both teams attempt to take one step closer to . He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. Follow/harass him on Twitter @Karl_de_Vries. There are few who doubt that, after finishing up his sixth season in Major League Baseball, Jason Heyward is a good player. That should tell you all you need to know about the Blue Jays plans for their fourth outfield spot, and this assignment is something he plans to grab with both hands. Sadly, the only skill that Heyward hasnt displayed during his bright, brief career is health. . Taking the runs above average on offense from the offensive group and the runs above average from the defensive group, adding in the value of a replacement player by averaging the plate appearances from the two groups and then using ten runs per win, we can get an approximate value. Advanced fielding statistics Ultimate Zone Rating (. Oliver: .273/.367/.475, 19 HR As to the first, this is not the article to convince someone about advanced defensive metrics, but his highlight-reel catches, mutiple Gold Gloves and three Fielding Bible awards seem to indicate there is some consensus from all viewpoints on the excellence of Heyward as a fielder. Heyward went first to third on a single 15 of 32 times according to BIS, and thats not quite Trout-level (62%), but it was 15th-best of 180 qualified players. Here are their total numbers from age 26 through age 35, a total of ten seasons per player. by Handedness, swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. According to Fangraphs, during his first six seasons, Jason Heyward was "worth" $198.1 million. Are the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders the result of his shoulder ailment, or normal growing pains for a player who wont turn 22 until August? Hitters might not want to hear this, but Phillies ace Zack Wheeler just added another pitch to his arsenal. Now, Heyward has an extended history of making various adjustments underneath, he hasnt been that static. There are two graphs below estimating the value of Heywards comps over the next ten years. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Crossword; Sudoku; Crossword; Sudoku _____ About Us . Upton, Chris Johnson and Andrelton Simmons, and its worth noting that Justin Upton and Heyward too, for that matter will be a free agent after next year, leaving open the possibility that the Braves could move him if the team decides to rebuild. The 2023 series on team offense continues with the New York Yankees. But even so, it seems like he has endured some bad luck on balls put in play. Drafted: 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Forget about everything else. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. The Dodgers announced Thursday that they've signed free-agent outfielder Jason Heyward to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. How much will he be worth? A few trade pickups last year are rated highly in 2023. Keep looking at him, and also keep looking at his numbers, as the season begins and wears on. To bring this all back: There are very early signs that Jason Heyward is focusing more on the pull half of the field. Here is how they performed over their next ten seasons. When Heyward is Ellsburys age, he will have just finished Year Six, or might have already opted out for another big contract. 2023 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Dodgers 'believe' in Jason Heyward; can swing change revive his career? Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as "more than adequate" in the field at center. Thats still well above-average, but chasing more junk off the plate certainly isnt a positive sign. At an age when most players are chasing a trip to Omaha or cutting their teeth in Low Class-A, Jason Heyward crushed major league pitching in 2010. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Despite three home runs in his first five spring at-bats, thats not really part of his game. With Taylor refocusing on the infield, Roberts suggested he would be less likely to fill the void at center field. For a big man, he can run a little Depending on ones point of view, it was an effort that was either an improvement in his development as a still-young hitter or a disturbing blight on his future value. For my ease, I took five-year averages for both WAR and the cost of a win when calculating the total. 2023 Pre-Season Projections Just how healthy is Heyward? But, when seen in the light of this years AL MVP debate, as well as the context of these four young outfielders, it is remarkable that Heyward has taken a similar path to Mike Trout, even with an athleticism that might be touch short of that demonstrated by the American League Rookie of the Year. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors That Aaron Boone batting order is plugged into the Lineup . Using FanGraphs approximate current cost of a win at $8 million, the numbers are even bigger. One of the hottest young prospects in baseball right now is Atlanta's Jason Heyward. Obviously, Heyward is nowhere near as good as Rodriguez was then, but the argument for blowing the budget to sign him is a similar one. Similarly, if you focus on Heywards triple crown numbers .269 with 27 home runs and 82 RBI youd be missing all that extra value he added in other facets of the game. . Instead, Heyward will step into the box for his first post-All-Star at-bat with a .226/.315/.404 triple-slash. The Yankees finished second in the majors and first in the American League in 2022 with 4.98 runs scored per game. Tony Conigliaro was unfortunately never the same after a pitch permanently injured him, while other players like Ruben Sierra and Carlos Baerga simply did not produce despite opportunities. He went second to home on a single. All he needs to do is stay healthy. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards. Massive crying face emoji. Perhaps its fitting, if random, that Heywards most recent highlights on MLB.com are all home-run-saving catches. by Retrosheet. With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Greatest Careers Through Age 25 Since World War II, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 30, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 35, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps Through Age 25, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps Through Age 26, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35. Meanwhile, the team is likely stuck with big contracts for the likes of B.J. The chart below shows the varying WAR averages from above for Jason Heyward comps at age-26 through age-30, as well as 26-35. Heyward managed to nab nine bases in 11 tries last year, and Bill James projects hell have 14 SB in 2012. He was 97-98 [mph], but I dont think that was the most interesting part of the outing. Jason Heyward LAD OF L Born: 08/09/1989 Age: 33 FanGraphs Player Page Auctions are not allowed at this time On MLB 40-man: NO Acquired: Free Agent (CHC) Dec'22 Positions OF Overall Last 10. Cubs president Jed Hoyer announced Monday the club intends to release veteran outfielder Jason Heyward from the final year of his deal at the end of the 2022 season. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Again, the talent is too much to ignore, and the increased contact and stolen bases are encouraging signs for a guy who still has at least a season or two to go before truly entering what should be the peak years of his career. Theres very little fly-ball action in left field. With such an advanced plate approach and gargantuan numbers in the minors (he slashed .323/.408/.555 while rising from High-A to Triple-A as a teenager in 2009), Heyward reached the show years before most hitters do. Age plays a crucial rule in projecting a players long-term performance, and Heyward still has plenty of development time left before he reaches what are typically the peak years of a hitters career. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Thats been fairly consistent. The Dodgers lost their starting shortstop for the entirety of the 2023 season in the third game of spring training. What follows is going to lean upon some spring-training data. Biggio knows right field well. Jason Heyward, who was instrumental in the lore of the infamous Game 7 rain delay, was once the thorn in the side of fans looking for a scapegoat to blame for the club's lack of spending. Lets focus on Heyward and power for a minute, then. Taylor may also appear at third base in Cactus League games. After the home run, back in the zone with offspeed pitches. Heyward, as you know, is left-handed, and here is where he hit baseballs between 2014 2015: I dont know what, if anything, stands out right away. Over the last four years, he hasnt had a wRC+ under 110 or over 121, but theres so clearly the potential for so much more than that too few people have come away satisfied. Quite obviously, Im lukewarm on Heyward, and his upside might merit a few dollars more, but Id need to see him take a step forward before I start paying for him as a frontline fantasy cornerstone. Last season was a huge disappointment for the Los Angeles Dodgers, as they were dropped in the NLDS by the rival San Diego Padres. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Heyward will get paid. Ellsbury, now 32, has been worth 21 wins since turning 26 while Crawford, 34, has been worth 22 wins over the last eight seasons. With a 21.8 percent infield fly ball rate, he hit the ball up the elevator shaft more often than any batter with at least 400 plate appearances. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Maybe hed find a different path to a familiar destination. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. Service Time : Reported as the pre-2022 value. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Jason Heyward isnt Mike Trout. Since Heyward is also the tallest of the four young outfielders at six-foot-five, we have reason to be worried about how long this can hold up for him.